Astramentis cost vs. Chance probability
If getting an astramentis is as rare as many people make it seem to be (i.e. 1 in 2000), and white stellars go for ~1 div now (I've sold many since launch for roughly 0.5-1 div), why can an astramentis be had for as little as 280d?
It seems like the price should be closer to at least 1k divine based alone on the upfront cost of the white stellar amulets.
What am I missing here? The ratio would have to be MUCH lower to turn a profit flipping at those prices.
Mainly asking as I have 150 divine and am considering converting them to white stellars and chance orbs since there are only 9 day left XD
Comments
The chance to make one with a chance orb is 50/50. It either does or it doesnt.
Gamba
They can also just drop
Something’s value is only high as the price someone is willing to pay. Also impatience - most sellers don’t want to wait a month for someone to buy.
They can be acquired through other sources. They can drop, you can grab one from nameless seer. You can vendor gamble too.
Chancing them isn't the only way to get it.
End of wipe, people don't really care about their builds and currency anymore and are waiting for next wipe. Gambling stellars or corrupting ingenuities is a great way to burn their remaining currency in one last hurrah.
Compare it to any lottery. The odds of getting a million on a 1$ ticket are lower than 1:1,000,000 otherwise the lottery wouldn’t function, hit somebody has to get lucky so.
In PoE there will always be someone who gets lucky so there will always be people willing to pay higher than the odds warrant for the gamba.
Lots of people are just dumping their currency into gambling without worrying about expected value, especially so close to a full reset. That's true for every "gambling currency" in PoE like valdo's or reliquary keys, stacked decks, etc. Poeple pay a huge premium for gambling and it's almost always better to sell.
Also, where does the 1/2000 number actually come from? To get a somewhat reliable estimate of such a small probability you would need hundreds of thousands of amulets. All I've seen is anecdotal evidence that points to somewhere between 1/500 to 1/2000.
How much does a perfect one go for? How about with a desirable corruption?
The ones that you can get for 280 div are the fails while there are some worth (insert what a perfect one with baals goes for). So the 2000 div price tag is the cost to get the ACTUAL gambling material.
Assuming a perfect market 2000 div would be the average value of all astramentis. With whatever the vaals cost I guess.
I don’t think of it as one person spending 1000 divs to sell a 280d item. I think of it as 1000 people spending 1 div to chance it. That number is then multiplied by however many more people are doing it. This drives the cost down. That 1/1000 chance coat is spread out amongst the people rolling for it.