PoE2 Orb of Chance Calculator released on PoE Ladder

I've released a first attempt at an Orb of Chance calculator on PoE Ladder. It makes a few unverified assumptions in order to calculate the odds but, at worst, it will at least show you the potential outcomes of using a particular base item:

https://poeladder.com/chance?ladderIdentifier=ssf_poe2_early_access&isPoe2=true

My assumptions are:

• PoE 2's Orbs of Chance work like the Tainted Mythic Orbs in PoE1
• The orbs ignore the iLvl of the item that you use them on
• The relative rarity of the targeted unique (aka Tier) matters
• The potential number of outcomes matters

The %age chances displayed in the tool seem to roughly match up with the few videos that I managed to find on Youtube but the odds of the rarer uniques are pure guess work. I'll refine the tool as we hear more from the Prohibited Library's science endeavours.

I chanced more than 100 heavy belts. All of them habe been destroyed

Wait I got an andvarius.... is it valuable???

Following for link.

Is there a way to just list all the uniques of a category? Like all belts, all rings, etc.

I'm just trying to look through them all and its super inconvenient to have drop down menues for single items

how do you even get orbs of chance? I'm on t8 maps and have yet to get a drop, or even a divine orb. I do have a loot filter so it's not like I missed it.

Got an Andvarious my first try lol.

Which chancing is most profitable?

Considering price of orbs, chance of success and value of final unique.

Interesting, cause I saw a lot of people in trade chat trying to buy white stellar amulets for 15 ex. Add orb of chance 7.5 ex and 1 astramentis on average is 390 divines, when in reality 160 divines. And usually trade chat is lowballing a lot. Maybe it is just unaware gamblers but ratio seems wrong.

no wonder it never worked for me. for astra amulet it is 1/2000.

Got gambler after 2-3 attempts randomly! Vaaling didnt really change it tho lol dunno how much thats priced

I got the Astramentis with two orbs so I think it's 50/50

And to think i got an Andvarius with the 2nd try on a gold ring...

Thats being said, ive burned entire stashes of stellar and amethyst and got nothing

I’m pretty sure these and andivarius stats are not real ngl

Jesus I didn’t realize how hard I lucked out on getting a Dream Fragments while chasing a Polcirken. 1/2000 is nutty.

thrillsteel tier 2 wtf? rip my ssf dreams

Man I think I spent all of my rng then. I've bit both the headhunter and the astramentis in < 50 tries 😅

Thank god Icant read or those numbers would stop me from tryin to slam stellars in wagons.

Wait, the outcomes for chance orbs are weighted????

Chanced an astramentis in 4 (*:

Yeah, there is no way this is correct though. I am on SSF and have chanced 2 mings hearts as well in around 12-15 tries. My astramentis was lucky but not that lucky.

Definitely could be lucky but the chances of me rolling a 4/2000 and then let's say 6/58 and 6/58 are extraordinarily unlikely

Hmmmm actually it's 50/50. You either get it, or you don't. /s

why is the higher tier item more common?

don't tell me POE mixes up tier terminology... they should fix that. lowest tier should always be 1, if waystone tier1 is the lowest ffs.

and item affixes higher tier is better too.